Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
CLE +7.5
model JAX -7.5 · 0.0 pts inside the number
P(cover)
51.9%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville JaguarsML favorite
Context: JAX 76% to win outright
2026 Season · Week 1
NFL Weekly Forecast
Every game as a calibrated distribution — our side against the spread, its cover probability, and an honest range around the projected margin. Lines as of 2026-09-08.
The week at a glance
Biggest favorite
LAC 81%
to win vs ARI
Closest game
GB @ MIN
48% / 52% win probability
Widest projected margin
LAC by 10.4
80% range -6 to 28 (home margin)
The slate
Cover probabilities hug 50% against closing lines because that market is near-efficient. Sides clearing the 53% bar get the +EV play badge — the full ranked list is on the .
Time TBD
+EV playOur side · vs closing
NO +7.0
model DET -6.9 · 0.1 pts of value
P(cover)
53.9%
50–60 · tick = 53%
New Orleans Saints
Detroit LionsML favorite
Context: DET 73% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
ARI +10.5
model LAC -10.4 · 0.1 pts of value
P(cover)
51.5%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles ChargersML favorite
Context: LAC 81% to win outright
Time TBD
+EV playOur side · vs closing
MIA +3.5
model LV -3.3 · 0.2 pts of value
P(cover)
54.4%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas RaidersML favorite
Context: LV 63% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
SF +3.5
model LA -3.4 · 0.1 pts of value
P(cover)
51.9%
50–60 · tick = 53%
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles RamsML favorite
Context: LA 62% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
TB +3.5
model CIN -3.5 · 0.0 pts of value
P(cover)
50.2%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati BengalsML favorite
Context: CIN 63% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
NE +3.5
model SEA -3.6 · 0.1 pts inside the number
P(cover)
51.8%
50–60 · tick = 53%
New England Patriots
Seattle SeahawksML favorite
Context: SEA 61% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
WAS +4.5
model PHI -4.5 · 0.0 pts of value
P(cover)
51.5%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia EaglesML favorite
Context: PHI 66% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
CHI -2.5
model CHI -2.7 · 0.2 pts of value
P(cover)
51.2%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Chicago BearsML favorite
Carolina Panthers
Context: CHI 57% to win outright
Time TBD
+EV playOur side · vs closing
DAL -2.5
model DAL -2.4 · 0.1 pts inside the number
P(cover)
58.0%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Dallas CowboysML favorite
New York Giants
Context: DAL 58% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
BUF -1.5
model BUF -1.5 · 0.0 pts inside the number
P(cover)
50.0%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Buffalo BillsML favorite
Houston Texans
Context: BUF 53% to win outright
Time TBD
+EV playOur side · vs closing
NYJ +3.0
model TEN -2.8 · 0.2 pts of value
P(cover)
55.3%
50–60 · tick = 53%
New York Jets
Tennessee TitansML favorite
Context: TEN 58% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
DEN +3.0
model KC -3 · 0.0 pts of value
P(cover)
50.3%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Denver Broncos
Kansas City ChiefsML favorite
Context: KC 58% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
ATL +3.0
model PIT -3 · 0.0 pts inside the number
P(cover)
50.7%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh SteelersML favorite
Context: PIT 61% to win outright
Time TBD
+EV playOur side · vs closing
GB +1.5
model MIN -1.4 · 0.1 pts of value
P(cover)
54.8%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota VikingsML favorite
Context: MIN 52% to win outright
Time TBD
No edge vs closeOur side · vs closing
BAL -3.5
model BAL -3.5 · 0.0 pts of value
P(cover)
51.6%
50–60 · tick = 53%
Baltimore RavensML favorite
Indianapolis Colts
Context: BAL 62% to win outright
The projected margin is market-anchored — the closing line plus a disciplined step toward the model's own number — and every probability is calibrated on held-out seasons. Nothing here is betting advice. See how accurate we are & how it works and the benchmarks for how the public field performs.